New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints30
- Dejounte MurrayAssists6
- Yves MissiRebounds14
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints27
- Ja MorantAssists7
- Brandon ClarkeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q40.0(00:00) [Pelicans] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)109–120
- Q40.0CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointer109–120
- Q46.1shot clock turnover106–120
- Q426.1Scotty Pippen Jr. defensive rebound106–120
- Q430.1Dejounte Murray misses two point shot106–120
- Q441.0Yves Missi defensive rebound106–120
- Q443.1Desmond Bane misses 22-foot three point jumper106–120
- Q41:04Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 1106–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:04Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)NO 7 – 7 MEM · MEM 79% → 83% +4MEM 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q28:33Marcus Smart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)NO 37 – 40 MEM · MEM 79% → 84% +5MEM 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q25:42Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 48 – 51 MEM · NO 12% → 16% +4NO 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q24:01Santi Aldama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)NO 52 – 54 MEM · MEM 76% → 81% +6MEM 76% → 81%+6 pts
- Q23:38Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)NO 52 – 57 MEM · MEM 81% → 86% +5MEM 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -11.5
- ML NO +500 / MEM -700
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -9
- MEM 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- MEM: Elo 81.0%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- MEM -525
- NO +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.5 – 122.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | +84 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +252 Elo | MEM 81.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 75.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30103.5 | Points scored | 121.02nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 112.715th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.8 | Margin | +8.35th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 114.27th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 106.45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.8 | Pace | 106.03rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–13 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–2 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.