Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Ochai AgbajiPoints24
- RJ BarrettAssists11
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints19
- CJ McCollumAssists4
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–93
- Q43.1Trey Jemison III makes dunk (Elfrid Payton assists)119–93
- Q45.0shot clock turnover119–91
- Q430.1Elfrid Payton makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)119–91
- Q442.1Pelicans defensive team rebound119–89
- Q442.1Jamal Shead misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot119–89
- Q446.0Trey Jemison III bad pass (Jamal Shead steals)119–89
- Q448.1Bruno Fernando makes alley oop dunk shot (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)119–89
- Q41:04Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 2-foot layup (Trey Jemison III assists)117–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:35Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 24-foot three point jumper (Elfrid Payton assists)TOR 32 – 31 NO · NO 42% → 49% +8NO 42% → 49%+8 pts
- Q26:49Jordan Hawkins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)TOR 34 – 38 NO · NO 54% → 62% +8NO 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q25:13Ochai Agbaji makes 22-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 41 – 40 NO · TOR 43% → 51% +8TOR 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q24:03Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 44 – 40 NO · TOR 51% → 59% +8TOR 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q21:52CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Javonte Green assists)TOR 48 – 43 NO · NO 30% → 38% +8NO 30% → 38%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -0.5
- ML TOR +100 / NO -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1
- NO 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- NO: Elo 46.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NO -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 110.5 – 111.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | −85 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Trey Murphy III −15 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +26 Elo | TOR 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 104.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.7 | Margin | −11.029th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 105.527th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 116.728th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Road vs home | 3–626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−85 Elo- Trey Murphy III left knee contusion−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–6 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–2 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.