Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints30
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists6
- Obi ToppinRebounds9
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints35
- Scottie BarnesAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–122
- Q416.1Scottie Barnes defensive rebound111–122
- Q419.1Jakob Poeltl blocks Bennedict Mathurin 's 1-foot driving layup111–122
- Q424.1RJ Barrett traveling111–122
- Q434.1T.J. McConnell lost ball turnover (Ochai Agbaji steals)111–122
- Q443.0Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 1 of 1111–122
- Q443.0Enrique Freeman enters the game for Pascal Siakam111–121
- Q443.0Pascal Siakam shooting foul111–121
- Q443.0Jakob Poeltl makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)111–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q352.1Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)IND 82 – 91 TOR · IND 14% → 21% +8IND 14% → 21%+8 pts
- Q49:22Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 93 – 102 TOR · IND 9% → 17% +7IND 9% → 17%+7 pts
- Q47:28Myles Turner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)IND 100 – 105 TOR · IND 16% → 28% +12IND 16% → 28%+12 pts
- Q46:36Obi Toppin makes two point shotIND 102 – 105 TOR · IND 27% → 36% +10IND 27% → 36%+10 pts
- Q45:55Ochai Agbaji makes 24-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)IND 103 – 108 TOR · TOR 59% → 75% +16TOR 59% → 75%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML IND -150 / TOR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2.5
- IND 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.3 pts
- IND: Elo 39.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- IND -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 120.0 – 116.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | +43 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +72 Elo | TOR 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 112.816th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 116.825th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.3 | Margin | −4.021st of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 109.522nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 5–417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–14 | 14–7 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | — |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–6 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–3 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.