Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints25
- Scottie BarnesAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints26
- Bam AdebayoAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–121
- Q43.1Bam Adebayo offensive rebound111–121
- Q45.2Jimmy Butler misses 14-foot jumper111–121
- Q411.1Heat offensive team rebound111–121
- Q411.1Scottie Barnes blocks Jimmy Butler 's 2-foot layup111–121
- Q417.1Scottie Barnes out of bounds bad pass turnover111–121
- Q421.1Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2111–121
- Q421.1Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2111–120
- Q421.1Jamison Battle enters the game for Jakob Poeltl111–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:21Haywood Highsmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)TOR 53 – 51 MIA · MIA 55% → 63% +8MIA 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q234.0Jimmy Butler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)TOR 59 – 58 MIA · MIA 57% → 65% +8MIA 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q39:19Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jimmy Butler assists)TOR 65 – 66 MIA · MIA 61% → 69% +9MIA 61% → 69%+9 pts
- Q34:08Tyler Herro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)TOR 79 – 80 MIA · MIA 58% → 68% +10MIA 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q33:02Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)TOR 79 – 85 MIA · MIA 74% → 82% +8MIA 74% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML TOR +265 / MIA -340
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4.5
- MIA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 67.7%, market 73.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -282
- TOR +282 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 105.5 – 114.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +10 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +129 Elo | MIA 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 73.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 110.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.1 | Margin | +1.112th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 111.115th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 110.010th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 3–424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–6 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.