Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints27
- Bam AdebayoAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints32
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–94
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound98–94
- Q40.0Tidjane Salaun misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot98–94
- Q44.1Kel'el Ware makes free throw 2 of 298–94
- Q44.1Kel'el Ware makes free throw 1 of 297–94
- Q44.1Tidjane Salaun personal take foul96–94
- Q44.1Kel'el Ware defensive rebound96–94
- Q44.1Cody Martin misses free throw 2 of 296–94
- Q44.1Moussa Diabate enters the game for Seth Curry96–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:44LaMelo Ball makes 28-foot three pointerMIA 84 – 80 CHA · CHA 11% → 23% +12CHA 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q42:23LaMelo Ball makes 30-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)MIA 92 – 89 CHA · CHA 7% → 22% +15CHA 7% → 22%+15 pts
- Q41:57LaMelo Ball makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotMIA 92 – 91 CHA · CHA 20% → 38% +17CHA 20% → 38%+17 pts
- Q442.1Tidjane Salaun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)MIA 92 – 94 CHA · CHA 32% → 80% +47CHA 32% → 80%+47 pts
- Q428.1Tyler Herro makes 28-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 95 – 94 CHA · MIA 15% → 71% +56MIA 15% → 71%+56 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML MIA -170 / CHA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- MIA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.1%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -151
- CHA +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.5 – 107.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +6 | +10 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +43 Elo | MIA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 109.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 114.020th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −4.922nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 107.726th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 99.918th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 5–418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–0 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.