Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints27
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds13
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints33
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game118–123
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime118–123
- OT1.1Bam Adebayo defensive rebound118–123
- OT1.1Spencer Dinwiddie misses 24-foot three point jumper118–123
- OT6.1P.J. Washington offensive rebound118–123
- OT8.1Spencer Dinwiddie misses 24-foot three point jumper118–123
- OT12.0Quentin Grimes enters the game for Dereck Lively II118–123
- OT12.0Spencer Dinwiddie enters the game for Daniel Gafford118–123
- OT12.0Klay Thompson enters the game for Naji Marshall118–123
- OT12.0Mavericks Full timeout118–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:18Alec Burks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)DAL 109 – 108 MIA · MIA 18% → 42% +24MIA 18% → 42%+24 pts
- Q41:03Jimmy Butler makes driving layupDAL 111 – 112 MIA · MIA 37% → 65% +28MIA 37% → 65%+28 pts
- Q455.0Kyrie Irving makes 7-foot pullup jump shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 113 – 112 MIA · DAL 34% → 64% +29DAL 34% → 64%+29 pts
- Q44.1Jimmy Butler makes 1-foot dunk (Duncan Robinson assists)DAL 114 – 114 MIA · MIA <1% → 50% +50MIA <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:54Bam Adebayo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)DAL 118 – 120 MIA · MIA 43% → 68% +25MIA 43% → 68%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML DAL +120 / MIA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -130
- DAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 109.5 – 112.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | +8 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +60 Elo | MIA 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 110.919th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 110.18th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +0.814th of 30 |
| 4th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 111.814th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 110.916th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.326th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 2–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.