Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints37
- Damian LillardAssists12
- Andre Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints23
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists5
- Tyler HerroRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–103
- Q41.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Kel'el Ware106–103
- Q41.0Heat Full timeout106–103
- Q41.0Taurean Prince makes free throw 2 of 2106–103
- Q41.0Kel'el Ware enters the game for Duncan Robinson105–103
- Q41.0Taurean Prince makes free throw 1 of 2105–103
- Q41.0Duncan Robinson personal foul104–103
- Q41.0Taurean Prince defensive rebound104–103
- Q43.0Tyler Herro misses 25-foot three point jumper104–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:54Brook Lopez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 96 – 92 MIA · MIL 51% → 70% +19MIL 51% → 70%+19 pts
- Q43:05AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 101 – 97 MIA · MIL 54% → 76% +22MIL 54% → 76%+22 pts
- Q42:51Terry Rozier makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 101 – 100 MIA · MIA 23% → 46% +23MIA 23% → 46%+23 pts
- Q42:24AJ Green makes 24-foot three pointer (Brook Lopez assists)MIL 104 – 100 MIA · MIL 55% → 80% +24MIL 55% → 80%+24 pts
- Q430.1Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three point shot (Bam Adebayo assists)MIL 104 – 103 MIA · MIA 2% → 32% +30MIA 2% → 32%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML MIL +190 / MIA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5.5
- MIA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 71.3%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -201
- MIL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 108.5 – 114.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −90 | +7 | MIL: Missing Giannis Antetokounmpo −100 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +158 Elo | MIA 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 65.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 111.819th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 110.68th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.112th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 111.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.211th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.5 | Pace | 98.724th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 3–320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−90 Elo- Giannis Antetokounmpo left knee−100 Elo
Heat
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–11 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.