Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints31
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds20
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints37
- Scottie BarnesAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q43.0Bam Adebayo makes 29-foot three pointer116–119
- Q47.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2113–119
- Q47.1Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2113–118
- Q47.1Bam Adebayo personal foul113–117
- Q47.1Scottie Barnes defensive rebound113–117
- Q410.0Duncan Robinson misses 23-foot three point shot113–117
- Q412.0Heat Full timeout113–117
- Q412.0Terry Rozier enters the game for Pelle Larsson113–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:31RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 77 – 78 TOR · TOR 35% → 45% +10TOR 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q42:14Haywood Highsmith makes 26-foot three point shot (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 107 – 111 TOR · MIA 5% → 19% +13MIA 5% → 19%+13 pts
- Q41:56RJ Barrett makes finger roll layupMIA 107 – 113 TOR · TOR 83% → 93% +10TOR 83% → 93%+10 pts
- Q41:14Scottie Barnes makes 27-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)MIA 110 – 116 TOR · TOR 82% → 97% +15TOR 82% → 97%+15 pts
- Q41:04Tyler Herro makes 23-foot three point shot (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 113 – 116 TOR · MIA 2% → 16% +14MIA 2% → 16%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML MIA -190 / TOR +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 59.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -170
- TOR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 113.5 – 109.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +42 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +69 Elo | MIA 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 112.517th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 116.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −4.323rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 109.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 113.421st of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 101.411th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | — |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–1 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.