Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints21
- Vasilije MicicAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints19
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Jalen SmithRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–109
- Q45.1Zach LaVine lost ball turnover (Moussa Diabate steals)95–109
- Q424.1Jalen Smith defensive rebound95–109
- Q428.0Isaiah Wong misses 25-foot three point jumper95–109
- Q439.1Coby White makes 2-foot two point shot95–109
- Q457.1Moussa Diabate makes free throw 2 of 295–107
- Q457.1Taj Gibson enters the game for Brandon Miller94–107
- Q457.1Hornets offensive team rebound94–107
- Q457.1Moussa Diabate misses free throw 1 of 294–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:26Ayo Dosunmu makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHA 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 62% → 67% +6CHI 62% → 67%+6 pts
- Q110:08Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three pointerCHA 2 – 9 CHI · CHI 73% → 78% +5CHI 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q18.2Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 26 – 31 CHI · CHA 20% → 26% +5CHA 20% → 26%+5 pts
- Q210:46Julian Phillips makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHA 28 – 36 CHI · CHI 74% → 80% +6CHI 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q310:06Vasilije Micic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)CHA 53 – 61 CHI · CHA 13% → 19% +6CHA 13% → 19%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -5.5
- ML CHA +180 / CHI -215
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4.5
- CHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 67.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CHI -191
- CHA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 113.5 – 119.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −10 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +126 Elo | CHI 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.1 | Points scored | 119.14th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 123.029th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−5.5 | Margin | −3.923rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 112.512th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 116.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 105.92nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 3–927th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–10 | 12–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders | 10–14 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–4 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.