Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints41
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints25
- Vasilije MicicAssists7
- Cody MartinRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–102
- Q421.1Vasilije Micic lost ball turnover (Evan Mobley steals)116–102
- Q423.2Vasilije Micic defensive rebound116–102
- Q425.1Darius Garland misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot116–102
- Q434.1Darius Garland offensive rebound116–102
- Q437.0Donovan Mitchell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot116–102
- Q454.1Jarrett Allen defensive rebound116–102
- Q456.1Josh Green misses 26-foot three point jumper116–102
- Q41:11shot clock turnover116–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q354.1Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)CLE 93 – 83 CHA · CLE 91% → 95% +4CLE 91% → 95%+4 pts
- Q49:44Donovan Mitchell makes 3-foot pullup jump shotCLE 95 – 87 CHA · CLE 89% → 93% +4CLE 89% → 93%+4 pts
- Q46:26Nick Smith Jr. makes two point shot (Josh Green assists)CLE 102 – 97 CHA · CHA 8% → 13% +5CHA 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q44:15Darius Garland makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotCLE 106 – 100 CHA · CLE 85% → 92% +7CLE 85% → 92%+7 pts
- Q43:33Evan Mobley makes 2-foot hook shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 108 – 100 CHA · CLE 93% → 97% +4CLE 93% → 97%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML CLE -1200 / CHA +700
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9.5
- CLE 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 81.8%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -738
- CHA +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.5 – 102.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1367 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | −23 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +261 Elo | CLE 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 85.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 85.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.0 | Points scored | 107.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 112.614th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.6 | Margin | −5.526th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 107.226th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 112.819th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–2 | Road vs home | 5–824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–6 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–6 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.