Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds20
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints28
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–126
- Q420.1shot clock turnover114–126
- Q441.1Nikola Jokic lost ball turnover (Evan Mobley steals)114–126
- Q445.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound114–126
- Q447.1Darius Garland misses 26-foot three point jumper114–126
- Q41:02Nikola Jokic makes driving layup (Jamal Murray assists)114–126
- Q41:17Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Darius Garland assists)112–126
- Q41:25Nikola Jokic personal foul112–124
- Q41:37Jarrett Allen defensive rebound112–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q230.1Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)DEN 62 – 66 CLE · CLE 61% → 69% +8CLE 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q311:09Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Dean Wade assists)DEN 65 – 71 CLE · CLE 67% → 74% +8CLE 67% → 74%+8 pts
- Q310:17Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 70 – 73 CLE · DEN 26% → 33% +8DEN 26% → 33%+8 pts
- Q39:46Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)DEN 70 – 76 CLE · CLE 67% → 75% +8CLE 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q38:56Evan Mobley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)DEN 72 – 79 CLE · CLE 69% → 77% +8CLE 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML DEN +150 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -159
- DEN +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.5 – 118.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +27 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +75 Elo | CLE 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 121.81st of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 111.311th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +10.52nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 119.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 109.59th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 6th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 12–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–12 | 16–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 13–6 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.