Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints30
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints26
- Walker KesslerAssists5
- Micah PotterRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–103
- Q48.1shot clock turnover122–103
- Q422.1Nuggets offensive team rebound122–103
- Q425.1PJ Hall misses 25-foot three point jumper122–103
- Q448.0Hunter Tyson defensive rebound122–103
- Q450.2Collin Sexton misses 25-foot three point jumper122–103
- Q41:02Micah Potter defensive rebound122–103
- Q41:05Hunter Tyson misses running pullup jump shot122–103
- Q41:11Walker Kessler lost ball turnover (Spencer Jones steals)122–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:10Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 8 – 19 UTAH · UTAH 35% → 41% +6UTAH 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q15:48Micah Potter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)DEN 12 – 24 UTAH · UTAH 37% → 44% +6UTAH 37% → 44%+6 pts
- Q14:17Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 17 – 26 UTAH · DEN 55% → 62% +7DEN 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q13:05Isaiah Collier makes 27-foot three point jumper (Johnny Juzang assists)DEN 21 – 29 UTAH · UTAH 31% → 37% +6UTAH 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q11:33Russell Westbrook makes 25-foot three pointer (Julian Strawther assists)DEN 30 – 33 UTAH · DEN 66% → 73% +6DEN 66% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -10.5
- ML DEN -600 / UTAH +400
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8
- DEN 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 77.9%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -429
- UTAH +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.5 – 109.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | −40 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +219 Elo | DEN 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 79.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 109.822nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 119.127th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −9.328th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 107.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 116.929th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | — |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–1 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.