New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints40
- Jalen BrunsonAssists17
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds15
Nuggets- Russell WestbrookPoints27
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game145–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter145–118
- Q421.1Miles McBride defensive rebound145–118
- Q424.0Jericho Sims blocks Zeke Nnaji 's 5-foot two point shot145–118
- Q438.1Nuggets offensive team rebound145–118
- Q441.1Zeke Nnaji misses 26-foot three point shot145–118
- Q446.1Julian Strawther defensive rebound145–118
- Q450.0Pacome Dadiet misses 27-foot three point shot145–118
- Q454.1Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound145–118
- Q456.1Zeke Nnaji misses driving layup145–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:33Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)NY 4 – 5 DEN · DEN 52% → 58% +6DEN 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q16:07Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 13 – 9 DEN · NY 46% → 53% +7NY 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q15:13OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 18 – 11 DEN · NY 53% → 60% +7NY 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q14:59Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)NY 18 – 14 DEN · DEN 40% → 47% +7DEN 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q12:52OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 25 – 18 DEN · NY 54% → 60% +7NY 54% → 60%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML NY +120 / DEN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- DEN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- DEN: Elo 57.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -128
- NY +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 115.5 – 118.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +5 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +54 Elo | DEN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 117.56th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 114.722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +2.710th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 113.48th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 110.815th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 102.29th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 12th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 5–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–9 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–1 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.