Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints33
- Jrue HolidayAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds8
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–115
- Q40.0Jaden Springer offensive rebound111–115
- Q40.0Jrue Holiday misses 39-foot three point pullup jump shot111–115
- Q44.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2111–115
- Q44.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Sam Merrill111–114
- Q44.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2111–114
- Q44.1Jaden Springer personal foul111–113
- Q45.0Cavaliers defensive team rebound111–113
- Q45.0Payton Pritchard misses free throw 2 of 2111–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:13Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 97 – 95 CLE · CLE 16% → 35% +19CLE 16% → 35%+19 pts
- Q42:14Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)BOS 99 – 98 CLE · CLE 17% → 41% +24CLE 17% → 41%+24 pts
- Q41:40Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three pointerBOS 101 – 101 CLE · CLE 21% → 51% +30CLE 21% → 51%+30 pts
- Q41:07Donovan Mitchell makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotBOS 101 – 103 CLE · CLE 50% → 76% +25CLE 50% → 76%+25 pts
- Q417.2Payton Pritchard makes 33-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 106 – 107 CLE · BOS <1% → 25% +24BOS <1% → 25%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -1.5
- ML BOS +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CLE 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 114.0 – 115.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1675 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +45 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +3 Elo | CLE 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.2 | Points scored | 122.31st of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 112.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.6 | Margin | +9.83rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 120.41st of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 110.713th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Road vs home | 10–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–11 | 14–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–11 | 11–6 |
| Underdog | — | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–2 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 19CLE 117 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 70%Hit
- May 15CLE 98 @ BOS 113PlayoffsPicked BOS 83%Hit
- May 13BOS 109 @ CLE 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 74%Hit
- May 11BOS 106 @ CLE 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 9CLE 118 @ BOS 94PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- May 7CLE 95 @ BOS 120PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Mar 5BOS 104 @ CLE 105Picked BOS 64%Miss
- Dec 14CLE 107 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 67%Hit