Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints26
- Trae YoungAssists22
- Dyson DanielsRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–124
- Q43.1Hawks defensive team rebound135–124
- Q44.0Donovan Mitchell misses 38-foot three point pullup jump shot135–124
- Q413.0Jalen Johnson makes dunk135–124
- Q413.0Jalen Johnson offensive rebound133–124
- Q413.1Trae Young misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot133–124
- Q437.0Ty Jerome bad pass (Dyson Daniels steals)133–124
- Q444.2Dyson Daniels makes free throw 2 of 2133–124
- Q444.2Sam Merrill enters the game for Jarrett Allen132–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:50De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 95 – 91 CLE · ATL 39% → 50% +11ATL 39% → 50%+11 pts
- Q411:24Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot three point shot (Evan Mobley assists)ATL 98 – 100 CLE · CLE 59% → 71% +12CLE 59% → 71%+12 pts
- Q46:44De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point shot (Trae Young assists)ATL 112 – 109 CLE · ATL 39% → 56% +16ATL 39% → 56%+16 pts
- Q45:49Trae Young makes 35-foot three pointerATL 115 – 109 CLE · ATL 58% → 74% +16ATL 58% → 74%+16 pts
- Q41:43Ty Jerome makes 26-foot three point shotATL 126 – 122 CLE · CLE 4% → 17% +13CLE 4% → 17%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML ATL +300 / CLE -400
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9.5
- CLE 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 82.5%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -320
- ATL +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 126.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1612 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +49 | ATL: Usual rotation · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +269 Elo | CLE 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 123.41st of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 111.110th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.4 | Margin | +12.41st of 30 |
| 21st of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 121.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 109.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.3 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 19th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 10–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–12 | 14–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 11–4 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.