Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints32
- Kyrie IrvingAssists6
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds10
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists16
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–119
- Q420.1shot clock turnover129–119
- Q442.1P.J. Washington defensive rebound129–119
- Q446.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot129–119
- Q449.1Hawks Full timeout129–119
- Q449.1Kyrie Irving makes driving layup129–119
- Q456.0Naji Marshall defensive rebound127–119
- Q458.2P.J. Washington blocks Trae Young 's 1-foot two point shot127–119
- Q41:01Jalen Johnson defensive rebound127–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:21De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kobe Bufkin assists)DAL 96 – 98 ATL · ATL 48% → 61% +13ATL 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q410:21Spencer Dinwiddie makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 101 – 102 ATL · DAL 31% → 43% +13DAL 31% → 43%+13 pts
- Q48:26Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 106 – 104 ATL · DAL 43% → 58% +15DAL 43% → 58%+15 pts
- Q47:35Trae Young makes 24-foot three pointer (De'Andre Hunter assists)DAL 108 – 107 ATL · ATL 32% → 47% +15ATL 32% → 47%+15 pts
- Q46:58Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)DAL 112 – 107 ATL · DAL 59% → 74% +15DAL 59% → 74%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML DAL +115 / ATL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1
- ATL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 46.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- DAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.0 – 119.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −73 | −5 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +22 Elo | DAL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 115.410th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 120.528th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.5 | Margin | −5.223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 108.921st of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 113.820th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.6 | Pace | 106.03rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 ATL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.