Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints29
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints23
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–117
- Q43.1shot clock turnover101–117
- Q427.1Ty Jerome makes 2-foot two point shot101–117
- Q433.1Kobe Bufkin traveling99–117
- Q451.0Sam Merrill makes free throw 2 of 299–117
- Q451.0Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu98–117
- Q451.0Vit Krejci enters the game for De'Andre Hunter98–117
- Q451.0Garrison Mathews enters the game for Trae Young98–117
- Q451.0Zaccharie Risacher enters the game for Dyson Daniels98–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:15Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 41 – 48 ATL · CLE 36% → 44% +8CLE 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q256.1Darius Garland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 47 – 52 ATL · CLE 40% → 49% +9CLE 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q232.1Darius Garland makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 50 – 52 ATL · CLE 48% → 57% +9CLE 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q310:44Darius Garland makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 53 – 56 ATL · CLE 44% → 53% +9CLE 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q39:06Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)CLE 53 – 61 ATL · ATL 54% → 63% +9ATL 54% → 63%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML CLE -240 / ATL +195
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 69.9%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -208
- ATL +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 124.5 – 119.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | +9 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +146 Elo | CLE 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.5 | Points scored | 116.69th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 121.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.2 | Margin | −4.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.5 | Offense rating | 109.721st of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.7 | Pace | 106.31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–1 | Road vs home | 4–522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–5 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–5 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–6 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.