Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints28
- Nikola JokicAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Clippers- James HardenPoints39
- James HardenAssists11
- James HardenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–126
- Q42.1James Harden defensive rebound122–126
- Q42.1Nikola Jokic misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot122–126
- Q48.1James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2122–126
- Q48.1Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Peyton Watson122–125
- Q48.1Kris Dunn enters the game for Ivica Zubac122–125
- Q48.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2122–125
- Q48.1Christian Braun personal take foul122–124
- Q49.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2122–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:04Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)DEN 93 – 99 LAC · LAC 60% → 72% +12LAC 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q49:40Nicolas Batum makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DEN 96 – 102 LAC · LAC 60% → 73% +13LAC 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q46:06Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)DEN 108 – 111 LAC · DEN 21% → 36% +15DEN 21% → 36%+15 pts
- Q44:51Norman Powell makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Ivica Zubac assists)DEN 110 – 113 LAC · LAC 54% → 67% +13LAC 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q43:34Julian Strawther makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Christian Braun assists)DEN 112 – 113 LAC · DEN 30% → 44% +14DEN 30% → 44%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML DEN -150 / LAC +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- DEN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 48.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -135
- LAC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.0 – 111.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −30 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +12 Elo | LAC 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 108.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 106.33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +2.210th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 109.123rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 106.96th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 6th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 7–413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 14–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 7–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–3 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.