LA Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints20
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints21
- Jaden McDanielsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–93
- Q41.2Rudy Gobert offensive rebound92–93
- Q43.1Anthony Edwards misses tip shot92–93
- Q43.1Anthony Edwards offensive rebound92–93
- Q45.1Mike Conley misses 25-foot three point jumper92–93
- Q426.0Kris Dunn lost ball turnover (Mike Conley steals)92–93
- Q427.2Kris Dunn defensive rebound92–93
- Q431.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 23-foot three point jumper92–93
- Q450.2Ivica Zubac makes tip shot92–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:49Donte DiVincenzo makes 27-foot three point shot (Naz Reid assists)LAC 80 – 83 MIN · MIN 58% → 72% +14MIN 58% → 72%+14 pts
- Q44:10James Harden makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 89 – 87 MIN · LAC 37% → 58% +21LAC 37% → 58%+21 pts
- Q43:40Anthony Edwards makes 2-foot driving dunkLAC 90 – 89 MIN · MIN 33% → 48% +15MIN 33% → 48%+15 pts
- Q42:24Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)LAC 90 – 92 MIN · MIN 45% → 72% +27MIN 45% → 72%+27 pts
- Q450.2Ivica Zubac makes tip shotLAC 92 – 93 MIN · LAC 11% → 32% +22LAC 11% → 32%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML LAC +210 / MIN -260
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.2%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -224
- LAC +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 103.5 – 109.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | −17 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +6 Elo | LAC 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 112.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 111.310th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.814th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 111.415th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 110.611th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 99.520th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 5–417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–7 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 4–12 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–13 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.