LA Clippers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints43
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds16
Wizards- Jonas ValanciunasPoints17
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–96
- Q48.1shot clock turnover121–96
- Q432.2Marvin Bagley III makes tip shot121–96
- Q432.2Marvin Bagley III offensive rebound121–94
- Q432.2Anthony Gill misses driving layup121–94
- Q438.1Anthony Gill defensive rebound121–94
- Q441.1Bones Hyland misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot121–94
- Q41:06Marvin Bagley III makes two point shot121–94
- Q41:11Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound121–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:22Malcolm Brogdon makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)LAC 10 – 5 WSH · WSH 12% → 15% +3WSH 12% → 15%+3 pts
- Q18:19James Harden makes 26-foot three pointer (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 13 – 7 WSH · LAC 82% → 86% +4LAC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q26:52Jonas Valanciunas makes 6-foot hook shot (Malcolm Brogdon assists)LAC 45 – 42 WSH · WSH 17% → 21% +3WSH 17% → 21%+3 pts
- Q25:13James Harden makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotLAC 47 – 42 WSH · LAC 79% → 83% +4LAC 79% → 83%+4 pts
- Q24:32Ivica Zubac makes 4-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)LAC 49 – 42 WSH · LAC 83% → 86% +3LAC 83% → 86%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -9.5
- ML LAC -450 / WSH +340
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -10
- LAC 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- LAC: Elo 83.7%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -360
- WSH +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 117.5 – 108.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1307 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −54 | −56 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +284 Elo | LAC 83.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 83.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 83.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 108.526th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 123.230th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −14.730th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 103.629th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 117.630th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.9 | Pace | 104.64th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 8th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–7 | 5–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | — |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 5–11 |
| Overs–unders | 7–12 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.