Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jonas ValanciunasPoints13
- Jordan PooleAssists4
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds11
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints19
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–118
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound87–118
- Q40.0Jared Butler misses 12-foot two point shot87–118
- Q47.1Tristan Thompson steps out of bounds turnover87–118
- Q417.1Jaylon Tyson offensive rebound87–118
- Q420.1Tristan Thompson misses 26-foot three point jumper87–118
- Q445.1Georges Niang defensive rebound87–118
- Q448.1Jared Butler misses 25-foot three point jumper87–118
- Q458.1Georges Niang makes driving layup (Tristan Thompson assists)87–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:14Evan Mobley makes driving layup (Donovan Mitchell assists)WSH 0 – 2 CLE · CLE 90% → 92% +2CLE 90% → 92%+2 pts
- Q110:46Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)WSH 0 – 5 CLE · CLE 92% → 94% +2CLE 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q19:56Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 2 – 8 CLE · CLE 92% → 95% +2CLE 92% → 95%+2 pts
- Q19:37Isaac Okoro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)WSH 4 – 11 CLE · CLE 93% → 95% +2CLE 93% → 95%+2 pts
- Q14:44Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)WSH 14 – 24 CLE · CLE 95% → 96% +2CLE 95% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -15.5
- ML WSH +900 / CLE -1800
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -14.5
- CLE 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 91.1%, market 90.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -947
- WSH +947 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.5 – 125.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1300 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | +22 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +403 Elo | CLE 91.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 91.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 91.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 90.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 122.01st of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 112.516th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−15.0 | Margin | +9.53rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.6 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 110.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.2 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 11–12nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–12 | 15–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 12–6 |
| Underdog | 6–12 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–5 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.