Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints31
- Jordan PooleAssists7
- Malcolm BrogdonRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints42
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–124
- Q45.1shot clock turnover114–124
- Q429.1Malcolm Brogdon makes two point shot114–124
- Q438.0Wizards Full timeout112–124
- Q438.0Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2112–124
- Q438.0Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2112–123
- Q438.0Malcolm Brogdon personal take foul112–122
- Q438.0Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound112–122
- Q440.1Corey Kispert misses 24-foot three point jumper112–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:52AJ Green makes 26-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)WSH 82 – 88 MIL · MIL 82% → 89% +7MIL 82% → 89%+7 pts
- Q45:38Alexandre Sarr makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 101 – 103 MIL · WSH 12% → 24% +12WSH 12% → 24%+12 pts
- Q45:11Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 7-foot two point shotWSH 101 – 105 MIL · MIL 76% → 85% +9MIL 76% → 85%+9 pts
- Q44:05Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point shot (Damian Lillard assists)WSH 103 – 107 MIL · MIL 76% → 85% +10MIL 76% → 85%+10 pts
- Q43:25Brook Lopez makes 1-foot layup (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)WSH 103 – 109 MIL · MIL 86% → 93% +7MIL 86% → 93%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -14.5
- ML WSH +700 / MIL -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -11.5
- MIL 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 86.9%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -733
- WSH +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 107.0 – 121.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1302 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −64 | +9 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +328 Elo | MIL 86.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 89.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 89.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 112.716th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 112.314th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−15.3 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.1 | Offense rating | 112.211th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 111.917th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.4 | Pace | 99.818th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 7–38th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–12 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 5–12 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.