Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints24
- Stephen CurryAssists11
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints38
- Jamal MurrayAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–119
- Q41.2Christian Braun lost ball turnover (Andrew Wiggins steals)115–119
- Q41.2Andrew Wiggins vs. Christian Braun (Stephen Curry gains possession)115–119
- Q45.1Christian Braun defensive rebound115–119
- Q47.0Moses Moody misses 25-foot three point jumper115–119
- Q414.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2115–119
- Q414.1Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2115–118
- Q414.1Buddy Hield enters the game for Kyle Anderson115–117
- Q414.1(00:14.3) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)115–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:46Gary Payton II makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 98 – 92 DEN · GS 58% → 72% +13GS 58% → 72%+13 pts
- Q48:11Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)GS 101 – 94 DEN · GS 64% → 77% +13GS 64% → 77%+13 pts
- Q41:19Nikola Jokic makes 18-foot jumperGS 115 – 115 DEN · DEN 28% → 52% +24DEN 28% → 52%+24 pts
- Q448.2Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2GS 115 – 116 DEN · DEN 52% → 67% +15DEN 52% → 67%+15 pts
- Q448.2Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2GS 115 – 117 DEN · DEN 67% → 80% +13DEN 67% → 80%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML GS +170 / DEN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- DEN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 53.5%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -180
- GS +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.0 – 120.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +16 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +24 Elo | DEN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 118.06th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 116.424th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 114.65th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.6 | Defense rating | 113.123rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 5–418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–8 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 0–4 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.