Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints29
- Paul GeorgeAssists8
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds12
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints34
- KJ SimpsonAssists9
- Nick RichardsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–104
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound110–104
- Q40.0Brandon Miller misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot110–104
- Q42.2Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot (Guerschon Yabusele assists)110–104
- Q46.0Cody Martin bad pass (Guerschon Yabusele steals)108–104
- Q49.0Tidjane Salaun enters the game for Nick Richards108–104
- Q49.0Vasilije Micic enters the game for KJ Simpson108–104
- Q49.0Hornets Full timeout108–104
- Q49.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2108–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:54Paul George makes 18-foot pullup jump shotPHI 97 – 95 CHA · PHI 53% → 69% +16PHI 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q42:10Guerschon Yabusele makes 1-foot layup (Paul George assists)PHI 99 – 97 CHA · PHI 53% → 71% +18PHI 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q41:32Brandon Miller makes 28-foot three point shot (KJ Simpson assists)PHI 99 – 100 CHA · CHA 26% → 59% +33CHA 26% → 59%+33 pts
- Q444.0KJ Simpson makes free throw 2 of 2PHI 102 – 102 CHA · CHA 32% → 48% +16CHA 32% → 48%+16 pts
- Q429.1Tyrese Maxey makes driving layupPHI 104 – 102 CHA · PHI 51% → 86% +34PHI 51% → 86%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML PHI -185 / CHA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1
- PHI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 46.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- CHA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 107.5 – 103.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −55 | −12 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +24 Elo | CHA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 107.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 112.113th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | −4.625th of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 106.926th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 99.422nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–13 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 7–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–0 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.