Houston Rockets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints41
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints39
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Ricky Council IVRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game122–115
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime122–115
- OT2.1Ricky Council IV makes driving dunk (Tyrese Maxey assists)122–115
- OT8.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2122–113
- OT8.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2121–113
- OT8.1Tyrese Maxey personal take foul120–113
- OT10.1Alperen Sengun defensive rebound120–113
- OT13.1Jared McCain misses alley oop layup120–113
- OT22.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2120–113
- OT22.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2119–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 3HOU 108 – 107 PHI · PHI 4% → 19% +15PHI 4% → 19%+15 pts
- Q411.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 3 of 3HOU 108 – 108 PHI · PHI 19% → 49% +30PHI 19% → 49%+30 pts
- OT4:20Guerschon Yabusele makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)HOU 108 – 111 PHI · PHI 45% → 66% +20PHI 45% → 66%+20 pts
- OT3:26Alperen Sengun makes tip shotHOU 113 – 111 PHI · HOU 54% → 69% +15HOU 54% → 69%+15 pts
- OT2:01Alperen Sengun makes tip shotHOU 115 – 111 PHI · HOU 72% → 86% +14HOU 72% → 86%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML HOU -215 / PHI +175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 68.2%, market 65.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -188
- PHI +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 112.5 – 107.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +47 | −35 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +133 Elo | HOU 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 65.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 104.129th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.4 | Points allowed | 112.514th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.6 | Margin | −8.426th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 104.828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30101.8 | Defense rating | 113.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.5 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 5th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–6 | 4–12 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.