Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Paul GeorgeRebounds8
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints19
- Jaden IveyAssists5
- Simone FontecchioRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–96
- Q412.2shot clock turnover111–96
- Q438.0Ricky Council IV defensive rebound111–96
- Q438.0Simone Fontecchio misses 23-foot three point jumper111–96
- Q439.2Pistons offensive team rebound111–96
- Q439.2Ricky Council IV blocks Simone Fontecchio 's 6-foot two point shot111–96
- Q443.0Lester Quinones bad pass (Paul Reed steals)111–96
- Q452.1Paul Reed makes 12-foot two point shot (Marcus Sasser assists)111–96
- Q459.0Paul Reed defensive rebound111–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:36Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)PHI 52 – 45 DET · DET 23% → 29% +7DET 23% → 29%+7 pts
- Q21:34Malik Beasley makes 32-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)PHI 54 – 50 DET · DET 29% → 37% +8DET 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q21:06Ricky Council IV makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 57 – 50 DET · PHI 64% → 71% +8PHI 64% → 71%+8 pts
- Q311:24Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point jumper (KJ Martin assists)PHI 60 – 52 DET · PHI 67% → 74% +8PHI 67% → 74%+8 pts
- Q39:57Tyrese Maxey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)PHI 65 – 55 DET · PHI 72% → 80% +7PHI 72% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -0.5
- ML PHI -125 / DET +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 108.0 – 108.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | −6 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +2 Elo | PHI 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.8 | Points scored | 110.521st of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 111.711th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.3 | Margin | −1.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 30104.8 | Offense rating | 109.522nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 110.712th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.520th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 4–523rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−6 Elo- Cade Cunningham pelvic sprain−24 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–13 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.