New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints20
- Vasilije MicicAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–98
- Q40.0(00:00) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)99–98
- Q40.0Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cody Martin assists)99–98
- Q43.1Brandon Miller offensive rebound99–95
- Q46.1Tidjane Salaun misses 29-foot three point jumper99–95
- Q48.1Josh Green enters the game for Taj Gibson99–95
- Q48.1Hornets Full timeout99–95
- Q48.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 299–95
- Q48.1Mikal Bridges enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns98–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:15Nick Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (KJ Simpson assists)NY 76 – 82 CHA · CHA 46% → 60% +14CHA 46% → 60%+14 pts
- Q48:13Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 81 – 82 CHA · NY 47% → 62% +15NY 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q46:16Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three pointerNY 81 – 85 CHA · CHA 41% → 58% +17CHA 41% → 58%+17 pts
- Q46:00Karl-Anthony Towns makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 84 – 85 CHA · NY 41% → 59% +17NY 41% → 59%+17 pts
- Q43:18Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)NY 90 – 88 CHA · CHA 10% → 25% +15CHA 10% → 25%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -12.5
- ML NY -800 / CHA +550
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- NY: Elo 74.7%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -578
- CHA +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.5 – 104.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | −44 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing DaQuan Jeffries −6, Nick Richards −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +188 Elo | NY 74.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 77.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 76.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 108.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 113.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −4.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30120.9 | Offense rating | 107.126th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 112.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 99.719th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 5–519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−44 Elo- DaQuan Jeffries fractured right hand−6 Elo
- Nick Richards fractured ribs−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–10 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–0 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.