New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints37
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints24
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists9
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–129
- Q418.1Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)114–129
- Q427.0Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)111–129
- Q437.1Jalen Brunson makes driving layup111–126
- Q445.1Quentin Grimes makes 29-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)109–126
- Q41:03Jalen Brunson makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot109–123
- Q41:08P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 2107–123
- Q41:08Jaden Hardy enters the game for Kyrie Irving107–122
- Q41:08P.J. Washington makes free throw 1 of 2107–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:01Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)NY 6 – 16 DAL · DAL 55% → 62% +7DAL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q125.1Jazian Gortman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)NY 15 – 28 DAL · DAL 64% → 70% +6DAL 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q211:35Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)NY 18 – 28 DAL · NY 29% → 36% +7NY 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q210:24Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three pointer (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)NY 20 – 33 DAL · DAL 65% → 71% +7DAL 65% → 71%+7 pts
- Q29:47P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)NY 20 – 36 DAL · DAL 72% → 78% +6DAL 72% → 78%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML NY -175 / DAL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2
- NY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NY: Elo 57.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NY -156
- DAL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 118.0 – 113.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | −98 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +50 Elo | NY 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 116.98th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 111.211th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.4 | Margin | +5.78th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30121.2 | Offense rating | 115.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 109.39th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 101.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−98 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.