Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints20
- Jalen JohnsonAssists9
- Clint CapelaRebounds14
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints32
- Vasilije MicicAssists5
- Brandon MillerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–104
- Q40.0(00:00) [Hawks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)107–104
- Q40.0Vasilije Micic makes driving layup107–104
- Q45.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2107–102
- Q45.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2106–102
- Q45.1Moussa Diabate personal take foul105–102
- Q45.1Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound105–102
- Q49.1Brandon Miller misses 26-foot three point jumper105–102
- Q49.1Josh Green enters the game for Nick Smith Jr.105–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:06Vasilije Micic makes 25-foot three pointerATL 94 – 92 CHA · CHA 13% → 30% +17CHA 13% → 30%+17 pts
- Q41:25Vasilije Micic makes 28-foot three pointerATL 98 – 97 CHA · CHA 10% → 35% +25CHA 10% → 35%+25 pts
- Q442.2Brandon Miller makes tip shotATL 99 – 99 CHA · CHA 18% → 48% +30CHA 18% → 48%+30 pts
- Q428.1De'Andre Hunter makes driving layup (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 101 – 99 CHA · ATL 52% → 86% +35ATL 52% → 86%+35 pts
- Q414.1Brandon Miller makes 22-foot three point shot (Cody Martin assists)ATL 103 – 102 CHA · CHA <1% → 22% +22CHA <1% → 22%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -5.5
- ML ATL -220 / CHA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -2
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.0%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -192
- CHA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 114.5 – 109.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +9 | −41 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing DaQuan Jeffries −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 107.727th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 112.413th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.6 | Margin | −4.724th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 106.926th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 111.616th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.1 | Pace | 99.520th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 5–623rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−41 Elo- DaQuan Jeffries right hand−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–12 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–6 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–3 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.