Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints26
- Vasilije MicicAssists12
- Nick RichardsRebounds8
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints27
- Mikal BridgesAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–125
- Q40.0shot clock turnover101–125
- Q423.1KJ Simpson defensive rebound101–125
- Q424.1Precious Achiuwa misses tip shot101–125
- Q425.1Precious Achiuwa offensive rebound101–125
- Q426.1Precious Achiuwa misses two point shot101–125
- Q427.1Precious Achiuwa offensive rebound101–125
- Q428.1Matt Ryan misses driving floating jump shot101–125
- Q442.1Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound101–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:51Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 25 – 17 NY · NY 70% → 75% +6NY 70% → 75%+6 pts
- Q29:06Seth Curry makes 25-foot three pointer (DaQuan Jeffries assists)CHA 45 – 37 NY · CHA 23% → 30% +6CHA 23% → 30%+6 pts
- Q28:18Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)CHA 47 – 42 NY · NY 70% → 76% +6NY 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q26:20Josh Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)CHA 51 – 44 NY · CHA 23% → 30% +6CHA 23% → 30%+6 pts
- Q26:02Josh Hart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)CHA 51 – 47 NY · NY 70% → 77% +6NY 70% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -14.5
- ML CHA +800 / NY -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9.5
- NY 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- NY: Elo 82.7%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -847
- CHA +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 101.5 – 116.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +18 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +272 Elo | NY 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 87.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 87.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.3 | Points scored | 118.06th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 111.211th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.7 | Margin | +6.87th of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 119.52nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 98.627th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–8 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–13 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–5 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.