New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints13
- Elfrid PaytonAssists7
- Yves MissiRebounds8
Knicks- Mikal BridgesPoints31
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game85–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter85–118
- Q415.1Tyler Kolek defensive rebound85–118
- Q415.1Karlo Matkovic misses dunk85–118
- Q419.1Jacob Toppin bad pass (Antonio Reeves steals)85–118
- Q431.0Matt Ryan defensive rebound85–118
- Q433.1Brandon Boston Jr. misses 19-foot step back jumpshot85–118
- Q443.1Trey Jemison III defensive rebound85–118
- Q447.1Jacob Toppin misses 25-foot three point jumper85–118
- Q452.1Jericho Sims offensive rebound85–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:54Mikal Bridges makes 11-foot two point shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NO 0 – 2 NY · NY 84% → 86% +2NY 84% → 86%+2 pts
- Q110:35Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 3 – 2 NY · NO 14% → 17% +4NO 14% → 17%+4 pts
- Q19:51Josh Hart makes 11-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NO 3 – 4 NY · NY 82% → 85% +3NY 82% → 85%+3 pts
- Q17:42Josh Hart makes 17-foot step back jumpshotNO 3 – 9 NY · NY 88% → 90% +2NY 88% → 90%+2 pts
- Q17:19Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerNO 3 – 12 NY · NY 90% → 93% +3NY 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -12.5
- ML NO +500 / NY -800
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10
- NY 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NY: Elo 82.9%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -533
- NO +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 106.5 – 119.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −70 | +25 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +274 Elo | NY 82.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 84.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 84.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30103.8 | Points scored | 117.85th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 112.816th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.8 | Margin | +4.99th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 120.02nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 114.923rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.0 | Pace | 98.128th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–13 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–0 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.