Orlando Magic at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints30
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Moritz WagnerRebounds12
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints23
- Josh HartAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–121
- Q41.1Tristan da Silva makes 28-foot three pointer (Cole Anthony assists)106–121
- Q45.1shot clock turnover103–121
- Q428.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound103–121
- Q429.1Moritz Wagner misses driving layup103–121
- Q434.1Moritz Wagner offensive rebound103–121
- Q437.0Caleb Houstan misses 25-foot three point jumper103–121
- Q447.1Magic defensive team rebound103–121
- Q448.2Tyler Kolek misses 26-foot three point jumper103–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:48Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 6 – 0 NY · ORL 41% → 47% +6ORL 41% → 47%+6 pts
- Q110:08Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three pointerORL 9 – 2 NY · ORL 43% → 50% +6ORL 43% → 50%+6 pts
- Q17:42Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 14 – 6 NY · ORL 46% → 53% +7ORL 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q16:25OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point shot (Mikal Bridges assists)ORL 14 – 13 NY · NY 56% → 62% +6NY 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q11:58Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)ORL 23 – 27 NY · NY 66% → 72% +6NY 66% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML ORL +175 / NY -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1
- NY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- NY: Elo 53.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -186
- ORL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 104.5 – 110.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +25 | ORL: Missing Goga Bitadze −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +27 Elo | NY 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 117.87th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.3 | Points allowed | 111.512th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+5.8 | Margin | +6.38th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 119.72nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.4 | Defense rating | 113.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 98.427th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+9 Elo- Goga Bitadze sprained right ankle−11 Elo
Knicks
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–8 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–3 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–1 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.