Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints31
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists14
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints30
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–100
- Q414.0Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound108–100
- Q416.1Zach LaVine misses 23-foot three point shot108–100
- Q420.1Kelly Oubre Jr. enters the game for Paul George108–100
- Q420.1Bulls Full timeout108–100
- Q420.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2108–100
- Q420.1Kyle Lowry enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.107–100
- Q420.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2107–100
- Q420.1Coby White personal take foul106–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:31Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point shot (Lonzo Ball assists)PHI 89 – 84 CHI · CHI 17% → 26% +10CHI 17% → 26%+10 pts
- Q47:06Ayo Dosunmu makes 22-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)PHI 91 – 87 CHI · CHI 16% → 27% +12CHI 16% → 27%+12 pts
- Q46:43Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 94 – 87 CHI · PHI 73% → 85% +12PHI 73% → 85%+12 pts
- Q45:24Zach LaVine makes 29-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)PHI 96 – 92 CHI · CHI 13% → 25% +12CHI 13% → 25%+12 pts
- Q44:14Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three pointerPHI 100 – 95 CHI · CHI 7% → 18% +10CHI 7% → 18%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML PHI -145 / CHI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- PHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 48.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- CHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 120.0 – 116.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +21 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +9 Elo | CHI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.0 | Points scored | 119.94th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 123.630th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.5 | Margin | −3.721st of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.0 | Offense rating | 113.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 116.629th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.6 | Pace | 106.02nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 3–827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–13 | 12–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.