Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints35
- Anthony BlackAssists7
- Franz WagnerRebounds7
76ers- Jared McCainPoints24
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Jared McCainRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–102
- Q41.076ers offensive team rebound106–102
- Q41.0Guerschon Yabusele misses 67-foot three point jumper106–102
- Q41.1Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound106–102
- Q41.1Jalen Suggs misses free throw 2 of 2106–102
- Q41.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2106–102
- Q41.1Tyrese Maxey personal take foul105–102
- Q42.1Magic Full timeout105–102
- Q42.1KJ Martin makes alley oop layup (Guerschon Yabusele assists)105–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32.2Jared McCain makes 26-foot three pointer (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)ORL 77 – 77 PHI · PHI 30% → 41% +12PHI 30% → 41%+12 pts
- Q41:21Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2ORL 99 – 98 PHI · PHI 24% → 35% +11PHI 24% → 35%+11 pts
- Q41:08Anthony Black makes dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 101 – 98 PHI · ORL 66% → 86% +20ORL 66% → 86%+20 pts
- Q422.1Tyrese Maxey makes 2-foot two point shotORL 101 – 100 PHI · PHI 3% → 26% +23PHI 3% → 26%+23 pts
- Q48.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 1 of 2ORL 102 – 100 PHI · ORL 84% → 98% +13ORL 84% → 98%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML ORL -230 / PHI +195
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6
- ORL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 73.0%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -206
- PHI +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 108.0 – 101.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHI and ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | −66 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +173 Elo | ORL 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 67.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 105.429th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.1 | Points allowed | 111.713th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.9 | Margin | −6.326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 105.827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Defense rating | 112.117th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 97.930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 2–728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–9 | 6–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–6 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.