Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints30
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Moritz WagnerRebounds9
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints21
- Paul GeorgeAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–102
- Q411.1Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound94–102
- Q415.0Tristan da Silva misses 27-foot three point jumper94–102
- Q422.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 294–102
- Q422.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 294–101
- Q422.1Tristan da Silva personal take foul94–100
- Q422.1Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound94–100
- Q424.1Jalen Suggs misses 23-foot three point shot94–100
- Q427.1Tristan da Silva enters the game for Cole Anthony94–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:40Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)ORL 27 – 35 PHI · PHI 58% → 65% +7PHI 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q37:28Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)ORL 47 – 53 PHI · ORL 26% → 34% +8ORL 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q33:16Moritz Wagner makes two point shotORL 57 – 59 PHI · ORL 38% → 46% +7ORL 38% → 46%+7 pts
- Q33:02Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)ORL 57 – 62 PHI · PHI 54% → 65% +11PHI 54% → 65%+11 pts
- Q31:10Jared McCain makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)ORL 57 – 69 PHI · PHI 80% → 87% +7PHI 80% → 87%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML ORL -135 / PHI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 69.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 106.0 – 103.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −38 | ORL: Missing Jonathan Isaac −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +145 Elo | ORL 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30107.9 | Points scored | 105.229th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.0 | Points allowed | 111.411th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.8 | Margin | −6.226th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 106.027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Defense rating | 112.317th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 97.630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 12th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 2–828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+8 Elo- Jonathan Isaac right hamstring−7 Elo
76ers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–10 | 7–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–4 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–6 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–3 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.