Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints26
- Vasilije MicicAssists9
- Nick RichardsRebounds14
Pacers- T.J. McConnellPoints30
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–109
- Q40.1Cody Martin defensive rebound113–109
- Q43.0Bennedict Mathurin misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot113–109
- Q47.0Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2113–109
- Q47.0Josh Green enters the game for Vasilije Micic112–109
- Q47.0DaQuan Jeffries enters the game for Nick Richards112–109
- Q47.0T.J. McConnell enters the game for Andrew Nembhard112–109
- Q47.0Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2112–109
- Q47.0Myles Turner personal take foul111–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:39Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)CHA 86 – 85 IND · IND 51% → 64% +13IND 51% → 64%+13 pts
- Q48:52Isaiah Wong makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 93 – 89 IND · CHA 38% → 53% +14CHA 38% → 53%+14 pts
- Q48:23Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Wong assists)CHA 96 – 91 IND · CHA 44% → 59% +15CHA 44% → 59%+15 pts
- Q45:45Bennedict Mathurin makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)CHA 100 – 96 IND · IND 24% → 40% +16IND 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q45:01Brandon Miller makes 6-foot two point shotCHA 102 – 98 IND · CHA 50% → 63% +13CHA 50% → 63%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -11.5
- ML CHA +475 / IND -750
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6.5
- IND 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- IND: Elo 73.4%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- IND -507
- CHA +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 105.5 – 117.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −46 | −16 | CHA: Missing Mark Williams −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +176 Elo | IND 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 83.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 82.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.8 | Points scored | 114.211th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 118.427th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−5.9 | Margin | −4.223rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 111.415th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 115.525th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 101.513th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 7–39th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−46 Elo- Mark Williams left foot−18 Elo
Pacers
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–10 | 8–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 3–2 IND in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.