Oklahoma City Thunder at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds16
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints17
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–92
- Q410.1Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound129–92
- Q414.0Jonathan Mogbo misses 19-foot step back jumpshot129–92
- Q423.0Chris Boucher defensive rebound129–92
- Q425.1Adam Flagler misses 25-foot three point jumper129–92
- Q443.0Jonathan Mogbo makes free throw 2 of 2129–92
- Q443.0Jonathan Mogbo makes free throw 1 of 2129–91
- Q443.0Ajay Mitchell personal foul129–90
- Q452.1Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)129–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:22Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three pointerOKC 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 19% → 24% +5TOR 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q110:56Isaiah Joe makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 3 – 3 TOR · OKC 76% → 81% +5OKC 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q110:27Isaiah Joe makes 8-foot two point shot (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 5 – 3 TOR · OKC 81% → 83% +3OKC 81% → 83%+3 pts
- Q17:57Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)OKC 13 – 6 TOR · TOR 8% → 11% +3TOR 8% → 11%+3 pts
- Q13:38Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 25 – 13 TOR · OKC 91% → 93% +3OKC 91% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML OKC -600 / TOR +400
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 74.5%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -429
- TOR +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.0 – 108.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1643 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −8 | OKC: Usual rotation · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +186 Elo | OKC 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 79.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 113.215th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.1 | Points allowed | 116.524th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.8 | Margin | −3.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 109.721st of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.4 | Defense rating | 112.920th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.612th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Road vs home | 6–417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–9 | 15–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–9 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.