Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Walker KesslerPoints17
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds11
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints28
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–133
- Q40.0Thunder offensive team rebound106–133
- Q40.0Dillon Jones misses running pullup jump shot106–133
- Q41.1Brice Sensabaugh bad pass (Branden Carlson steals)106–133
- Q411.0Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound106–133
- Q412.2Branden Carlson misses 25-foot three point jumper106–133
- Q421.2Keyonte George makes 15-foot pullup jump shot106–133
- Q436.0Branden Carlson makes free throw 2 of 2104–133
- Q436.0Branden Carlson makes free throw 1 of 2104–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:02John Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 11 – 6 OKC · UTAH 16% → 21% +4UTAH 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q16:44Keyonte George makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 16 – 10 OKC · UTAH 18% → 23% +5UTAH 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q15:41Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 13-foot two point shot (Cason Wallace assists)UTAH 19 – 12 OKC · OKC 71% → 75% +4OKC 71% → 75%+4 pts
- Q14:58Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)UTAH 19 – 15 OKC · OKC 74% → 80% +5OKC 74% → 80%+5 pts
- Q12:24Luguentz Dort makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)UTAH 25 – 25 OKC · OKC 80% → 85% +5OKC 80% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML UTAH +650 / OKC -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11.5
- OKC 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 86.7%, market 87.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -682
- UTAH +682 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 105.5 – 119.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1639 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +3 | UTAH: Usual rotation · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +325 Elo | OKC 86.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 86.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 86.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 87.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 114.014th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +10.03rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 102.11st of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 8–23rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–11 | 11–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–3 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.