Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints30
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists10
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds11
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints19
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–94
- Q46.1Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2106–94
- Q46.1Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 1 of 2106–93
- Q46.1Jaden Hardy personal foul106–92
- Q415.1Jazian Gortman makes 23-foot pullup jump shot (Jaden Hardy assists)106–92
- Q436.1Lauri Markkanen makes driving layup (Collin Sexton assists)104–92
- Q443.0Jazz offensive team rebound104–90
- Q444.0Jazian Gortman blocks John Collins 's 4-foot driving layup104–90
- Q447.1Jazian Gortman enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie104–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21.1Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 56 – 49 UTAH · DAL 73% → 80% +7DAL 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q38:35Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 60 – 57 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 30% +8UTAH 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q37:40John Collins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)DAL 63 – 60 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 30% +8UTAH 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q336.2Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)DAL 83 – 76 UTAH · UTAH 11% → 17% +7UTAH 11% → 17%+7 pts
- Q46:44Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 90 – 82 UTAH · DAL 81% → 90% +9DAL 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML DAL -230 / UTAH +195
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5
- DAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 68.4%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -206
- UTAH +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 117.5 – 112.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1617 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −65 | +8 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +134 Elo | DAL 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 109.423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 119.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+6.2 | Margin | −9.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 107.925th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 117.629th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.411th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 2–727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | — |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–2 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.