Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints33
- LeBron JamesAssists14
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints22
- Johnny JuzangAssists5
- Walker KesslerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–104
- Q42.0Christian Koloko enters the game for Gabe Vincent105–104
- Q42.0Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for Walker Kessler105–104
- Q42.0Jazz Full timeout105–104
- Q48.0Walker Kessler defensive rebound105–104
- Q411.0LeBron James misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot105–104
- Q431.1Walker Kessler makes two point shot105–104
- Q431.1Walker Kessler offensive rebound105–102
- Q433.1Keyonte George misses two point shot105–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:20Collin Sexton makes pullup jump shot (Walker Kessler assists)LAL 101 – 99 UTAH · UTAH 15% → 29% +14UTAH 15% → 29%+14 pts
- Q41:56Anthony Davis makes 18-foot jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 103 – 99 UTAH · LAL 72% → 87% +14LAL 72% → 87%+14 pts
- Q41:04Keyonte George makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Collin Sexton assists)LAL 103 – 101 UTAH · UTAH 7% → 23% +15UTAH 7% → 23%+15 pts
- Q441.0LeBron James makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Max Christie assists)LAL 105 – 102 UTAH · LAL 68% → 91% +23LAL 68% → 91%+23 pts
- Q431.1Walker Kessler makes two point shotLAL 105 – 104 UTAH · UTAH 6% → 29% +23UTAH 6% → 29%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML LAL -205 / UTAH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4.5
- LAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- LAL: Elo 66.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAL -181
- UTAH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.5 – 110.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1367 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −13 | +1 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +120 Elo | LAL 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 108.623rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 118.526th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −9.928th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 107.125th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 117.028th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.5 | Pace | 101.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 2–829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | — |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–1 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.