Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints36
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds18
Lakers- Dalton KnechtPoints20
- Anthony DavisAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–93
- Q40.0Lakers offensive team rebound101–93
- Q41.0Dalton Knecht misses 50-foot three point jumper101–93
- Q42.1Isaiah Hartenstein makes free throw 2 of 2101–93
- Q42.1Isaiah Hartenstein makes free throw 1 of 2100–93
- Q42.1D'Angelo Russell shooting foul99–93
- Q45.1Cason Wallace offensive rebound99–93
- Q48.1Jalen Williams misses 24-foot three point jumper99–93
- Q416.0Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound99–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:02Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 79 – 77 LAL · OKC 48% → 63% +15OKC 48% → 63%+15 pts
- Q44:13Dalton Knecht makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Austin Reaves assists)OKC 89 – 87 LAL · LAL 18% → 34% +17LAL 18% → 34%+17 pts
- Q42:47Austin Reaves makes 4-foot two point shot (Anthony Davis assists)OKC 92 – 91 LAL · LAL 24% → 40% +15LAL 24% → 40%+15 pts
- Q41:35Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot three pointerOKC 95 – 91 LAL · OKC 63% → 88% +26OKC 63% → 88%+26 pts
- Q439.2Max Christie makes 9-foot two point shotOKC 95 – 93 LAL · LAL 4% → 18% +15LAL 4% → 18%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -2.5
- ML OKC -145 / LAL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 63.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -133
- LAL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.0 – 113.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −4 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +95 Elo | OKC 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 115.610th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.8 | Points allowed | 116.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.8 | Margin | −0.917th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 114.45th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.4 | Defense rating | 115.424th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.014th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 1–3 LAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.