Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds13
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints38
- Alperen SengunAssists9
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q40.0Thunder offensive team rebound116–119
- Q40.0Jalen Williams misses 30-foot three point shot116–119
- Q41.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 2 of 2116–119
- Q41.1Isaiah Joe enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein116–118
- Q41.1Tari Eason enters the game for Alperen Sengun116–118
- Q41.1Amen Thompson enters the game for Jalen Green116–118
- Q41.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 1 of 2116–118
- Q41.1Cason Wallace personal take foul116–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:18Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 108 – 105 HOU · OKC 51% → 73% +22OKC 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q42:58Fred VanVleet makes 29-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)OKC 108 – 108 HOU · HOU 26% → 49% +23HOU 26% → 49%+23 pts
- Q41:29Fred VanVleet makes 32-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)OKC 110 – 113 HOU · HOU 50% → 81% +31HOU 50% → 81%+31 pts
- Q41:04Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)OKC 113 – 113 HOU · OKC 15% → 50% +35OKC 15% → 50%+35 pts
- Q433.1Dillon Brooks makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)OKC 113 – 115 HOU · HOU 50% → 83% +34HOU 50% → 83%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -1.5
- ML OKC -120 / HOU +100
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1
- OKC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 45.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 111.0 – 109.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | +46 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | OKC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +28 Elo | HOU 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 114.312th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.2 | Points allowed | 105.83rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.7 | Margin | +8.55th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 110.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 30101.4 | Defense rating | 101.92nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.8 | Pace | 102.45th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–2 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–8 | 14–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 10–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.