Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints22
- RJ BarrettAssists10
- RJ BarrettRebounds11
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints23
- Bam AdebayoAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–114
- Q411.1shot clock turnover104–114
- Q411.1Heat offensive team rebound104–114
- Q411.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper104–114
- Q435.1Ochai Agbaji makes 8-foot two point shot (RJ Barrett assists)104–114
- Q441.1RJ Barrett defensive rebound102–114
- Q445.2Terry Rozier misses 23-foot three point jumper102–114
- Q41:06Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2102–114
- Q41:06Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2101–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:02Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)TOR 18 – 9 MIA · TOR 31% → 37% +6TOR 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q28:38Jamal Shead makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamison Battle assists)TOR 41 – 25 MIA · TOR 54% → 61% +7TOR 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q24:59Terry Rozier makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyler Herro assists)TOR 43 – 39 MIA · MIA 59% → 66% +8MIA 59% → 66%+8 pts
- Q21:35Nikola Jovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)TOR 49 – 49 MIA · MIA 67% → 74% +7MIA 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q21:13Dru Smith makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nikola Jovic assists)TOR 49 – 52 MIA · MIA 74% → 80% +7MIA 74% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -10.5
- ML TOR +400 / MIA -600
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -8.5
- MIA 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 79.9%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -429
- TOR +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.0 – 117.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | +34 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +240 Elo | MIA 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 80.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 112.217th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 109.37th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.9 | Margin | +3.012th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 113.59th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 110.511th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.5 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–11 | Road vs home | 7–412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–8 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–4 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.