Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Royce O'NealePoints23
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Mason PlumleeRebounds11
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints25
- Bam AdebayoAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–121
- Q48.1shot clock turnover111–121
- Q430.2Bam Adebayo defensive rebound111–121
- Q434.1Bradley Beal misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot111–121
- Q438.1Haywood Highsmith makes free throw 2 of 2111–121
- Q438.1Haywood Highsmith makes free throw 1 of 2111–120
- Q438.1Grayson Allen personal foul111–119
- Q449.0Royce O'Neale defensive rebound111–119
- Q451.1Royce O'Neale bad pass (Tyler Herro steals)111–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q250.1Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 55 – 51 MIA · PHX 42% → 50% +9PHX 42% → 50%+9 pts
- Q233.0Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 58 – 53 MIA · PHX 45% → 53% +9PHX 45% → 53%+9 pts
- Q45:39Bam Adebayo makes three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)PHX 95 – 103 MIA · MIA 81% → 91% +10MIA 81% → 91%+10 pts
- Q44:35Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 100 – 103 MIA · PHX 13% → 27% +14PHX 13% → 27%+14 pts
- Q44:16Jimmy Butler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)PHX 100 – 106 MIA · MIA 74% → 88% +14MIA 74% → 88%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML PHX +175 / MIA -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 64.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -186
- PHX +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 109.0 – 114.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −46 | +21 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +105 Elo | MIA 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 111.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 109.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +2.311th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 112.312th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 110.011th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 14th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 5–419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–13 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–0 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.