Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints28
- Grayson AllenAssists10
- Mason PlumleeRebounds10
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints29
- CJ McCollumAssists6
- Yves MissiRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–126
- Q40.0Suns offensive team rebound124–126
- Q40.0Herbert Jones blocks Devin Booker 's 26-foot three point pullup jump shot124–126
- Q42.1Grayson Allen enters the game for Oso Ighodaro124–126
- Q42.1Javonte Green enters the game for CJ McCollum124–126
- Q42.1Suns Full timeout124–126
- Q42.1Bradley Beal defensive rebound124–126
- Q43.0CJ McCollum misses free throw 2 of 2124–126
- Q43.0Mason Plumlee enters the game for Grayson Allen124–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:26Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 108 – 111 NO · PHX 18% → 33% +15PHX 18% → 33%+15 pts
- Q42:58Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point shot (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 115 – 116 NO · PHX 21% → 42% +22PHX 21% → 42%+22 pts
- Q41:49Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)PHX 117 – 121 NO · NO 60% → 85% +25NO 60% → 85%+25 pts
- Q457.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2PHX 121 – 121 NO · PHX 36% → 50% +14PHX 36% → 50%+14 pts
- Q434.1CJ McCollum makes driving layupPHX 121 – 123 NO · NO 50% → 83% +33NO 50% → 83%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -1.5
- ML PHX -125 / NO +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 62.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -114
- NO +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.0 – 110.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | −53 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +90 Elo | PHX 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 103.330th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −12.729th of 30 |
| 8th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 103.529th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 116.227th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 99.721st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 3–726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–12 | 7–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 10–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–1 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.