New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints29
- Dejounte MurrayAssists10
- Yves MissiRebounds12
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints22
- Trae YoungAssists15
- Clint CapelaRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–124
- Q418.0Clint Capela defensive rebound112–124
- Q420.1Javonte Green misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot112–124
- Q432.0Jalen Johnson makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Trae Young assists)112–124
- Q434.0Trae Young defensive rebound112–122
- Q437.0CJ McCollum misses driving floating jump shot112–122
- Q445.1Jalen Johnson makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Trae Young assists)112–122
- Q41:01Javonte Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)112–120
- Q41:04Javonte Green offensive rebound109–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:00De'Andre Hunter makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot (Trae Young assists)NO 54 – 51 ATL · ATL 55% → 64% +8ATL 55% → 64%+8 pts
- Q39:22Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotNO 66 – 64 ATL · NO 28% → 36% +8NO 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q37:46CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point shot (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 71 – 69 ATL · NO 28% → 37% +9NO 28% → 37%+9 pts
- Q33:17De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)NO 73 – 77 ATL · ATL 70% → 79% +9ATL 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q410:31CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)NO 90 – 94 ATL · NO 13% → 21% +8NO 13% → 21%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -9.5
- ML NO +330 / ATL -420
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -8
- ATL 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 78.9%, market 77.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -347
- NO +347 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 111.0 – 120.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −77 | +15 | NO: Missing Brandon Ingram −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +230 Elo | ATL 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 78.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 77.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30102.9 | Points scored | 116.19th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 119.428th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−12.8 | Margin | −3.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.6 | Offense rating | 109.920th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 113.019th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 105.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 5–519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−77 Elo- Brandon Ingram tendinitis−22 Elo
Hawks
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–14 | 8–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.