Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints29
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Max ChristieRebounds7
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints31
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–134
- Q418.1shot clock turnover93–134
- Q441.0Terry Rozier defensive rebound93–134
- Q444.1Gabe Vincent misses two point shot93–134
- Q457.0Armel Traore defensive rebound93–134
- Q41:00Pelle Larsson misses 25-foot three point shot93–134
- Q41:05Thomas Bryant defensive rebound93–134
- Q41:07Armel Traore misses 9-foot two point shot93–134
- Q41:23Armel Traore defensive rebound93–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:27Tyler Herro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)LAL 6 – 6 MIA · MIA 53% → 60% +6MIA 53% → 60%+6 pts
- Q18:56Haywood Highsmith makes 27-foot three point shot (Tyler Herro assists)LAL 6 – 9 MIA · MIA 60% → 66% +6MIA 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q17:39Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)LAL 6 – 14 MIA · MIA 70% → 75% +5MIA 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q13.1Kevin Love makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)LAL 26 – 34 MIA · MIA 70% → 76% +6MIA 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q210:56Gabe Vincent makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 29 – 36 MIA · LAL 20% → 26% +6LAL 20% → 26%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -3.5
- ML LAL +140 / MIA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 64.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -149
- LAL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 107.5 – 111.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +6 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +105 Elo | MIA 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 62.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 110.121st of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 109.87th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 111.016th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 110.712th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–13 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.