Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints20
- D'Angelo RussellAssists5
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints18
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists9
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game80–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter80–109
- Q423.1Maxwell Lewis out of bounds lost ball turnover80–109
- Q433.0Luka Garza makes 2-foot layup (Josh Minott assists)80–109
- Q438.1Josh Minott defensive rebound80–107
- Q441.2Gabe Vincent misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot80–107
- Q454.1Terrence Shannon Jr. makes dunk80–107
- Q459.0Daishen Nix defensive rebound80–105
- Q41:01Christian Koloko misses 25-foot three point jumper80–105
- Q41:17Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daishen Nix assists)80–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:08D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 9 – 5 MIN · LAL 31% → 36% +6LAL 31% → 36%+6 pts
- Q17:09Mike Conley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)LAL 9 – 10 MIN · MIN 67% → 73% +6MIN 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q211:16Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 22 – 25 MIN · MIN 69% → 75% +6MIN 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q210:16Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)LAL 24 – 28 MIN · MIN 71% → 77% +6MIN 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q29:15D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 27 – 30 MIN · LAL 19% → 25% +6LAL 19% → 25%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML LAL +245 / MIN -300
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.5%, market 72.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -259
- LAL +259 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 106.0 – 113.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | −14 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +104 Elo | MIN 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 72.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 111.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 110.38th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.813th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 110.718th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 109.99th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.2 | Pace | 99.323rd of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–12 | 6–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 4–13 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.