Miami Heat at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points19
- Bam AdebayoAssists5
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Rebounds10
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints29
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–108
- Q47.1shot clock turnover89–108
- Q432.0Pelle Larsson makes 24-foot three point shot (Dru Smith assists)89–108
- Q437.2Pelle Larsson defensive rebound86–108
- Q440.1Baylor Scheierman misses 31-foot three point jumper86–108
- Q41:01Thomas Bryant makes free throw 2 of 286–108
- Q41:01Thomas Bryant makes free throw 1 of 285–108
- Q41:01Xavier Tillman shooting foul84–108
- Q41:07Pelle Larsson defensive rebound84–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:21Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 7 – 0 BOS · MIA 30% → 36% +6MIA 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q12:17Payton Pritchard makes 31-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)MIA 18 – 22 BOS · BOS 77% → 82% +5BOS 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q148.1Dru Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 23 – 25 BOS · MIA 17% → 22% +5MIA 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q12.2Jayson Tatum makes 28-foot three pointerMIA 25 – 28 BOS · BOS 74% → 80% +5BOS 74% → 80%+5 pts
- Q39:55Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point shot (Derrick White assists)MIA 52 – 63 BOS · BOS 87% → 91% +4BOS 87% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -9.5
- ML MIA +320 / BOS -425
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 77.1%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -340
- MIA +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 105.5 – 115.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1669 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | BOS and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −31 | −5 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −47, Kevin Love −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +211 Elo | BOS 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 78.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 78.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 110.89th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +9.92nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 119.03rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 109.37th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.719th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−31 Elo- Jimmy Butler III sore right knee−47 Elo
- Kevin Love back spasms−8 Elo
Celtics
−5 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis left ankle rehab−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–10 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–7 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- May 1MIA 84 @ BOS 118PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Apr 29BOS 102 @ MIA 88PlayoffsPicked BOS 69%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 104 @ MIA 84PlayoffsPicked BOS 66%Hit
- Apr 24MIA 111 @ BOS 101PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- Apr 21MIA 94 @ BOS 114PlayoffsPicked BOS 75%Hit
- Feb 11BOS 110 @ MIA 106Picked BOS 69%Hit
- Jan 25BOS 143 @ MIA 110Picked BOS 69%Hit
- Oct 27MIA 111 @ BOS 119Picked BOS 52%Hit