Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints23
- Ty JeromeAssists6
- Dean WadeRebounds8
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints34
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–122
- Q46.0Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)113–122
- Q412.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. enters the game for110–122
- Q416.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. enters the game for Jimmy Butler110–122
- Q416.0shot clock turnover110–122
- Q441.0JT Thor makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)110–122
- Q452.0Dru Smith makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot107–122
- Q41:16JT Thor makes 20-foot jumper (Ty Jerome assists)107–119
- Q41:23Thomas Bryant enters the game for Bam Adebayo105–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:45Dean Wade makes 25-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)CLE 83 – 90 MIA · CLE 17% → 26% +9CLE 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q411:23Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)CLE 83 – 93 MIA · MIA 75% → 84% +9MIA 75% → 84%+9 pts
- Q48:38Terry Rozier makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jimmy Butler assists)CLE 92 – 100 MIA · MIA 71% → 82% +11MIA 71% → 82%+11 pts
- Q48:28Darius Garland makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 95 – 100 MIA · CLE 18% → 29% +11CLE 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q48:14Dru Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)CLE 95 – 103 MIA · MIA 71% → 83% +11MIA 71% → 83%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML CLE -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 112.5 – 110.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIA and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +61 | +29 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +46 Elo | CLE 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30121.8 | Points scored | 111.818th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 109.16th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+10.7 | Margin | +2.711th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 113.011th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 110.311th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.7 | Pace | 97.829th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–6 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–6 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.